Ecosystem Model Uncertainty Training
This week-long uncertainty training will introduce participants to practical approaches for quantifying, propagating, and communicating uncertainty in ecosystem modeling workflows. The course will cover both frequentist and Bayesian approaches, starting with core concepts and hands-on methods before moving into model calibration, evaluation, and uncertainty propagation. By the end of the training, participants will understand how uncertainty methods can be applied systematically across modeling pipelines to support more transparent, reproducible, and decision-ready analysis.
Agenda Overview
Monday
Introduction to what uncertainty is, why it matters for the carbon market, and getting into real, nested data. Learn about classical uncertainty from Dr. Stephen Ogle: variation, measurement error, bias, and the tradeoff between a simple model and an accurate one.
Tuesday
Frequentist tools. Building linear mixed effect and confidence intervals and pushing them through a decision.
Wednesday
Bayesian thinking and a global sensitivity analysis on the model.
Thursday
Calibration. Reducing uncertainty with SIR and MCMC. Comparing the methods, tying back to reporting, and open discussion.
October 12-15, 2026 | In-Person ONLY
Fort Collins, CO
COST: $1600
Commercial Consortium Members: Free
Students: 50% off
Meet the Experts
Dr. Ames Fowler
Ecosystem Modeler, Ecosystem Modeling and Data Consortium
Ames is an ecosystem modeler with experience in processing-based modeling from the field to national scale with a diversity of hydrology, crop yield, and bio-geochemical soil system models. Ames is dedicated to enhancing access, development, technical support, and user training for CSU's state-of-the-art soil system models through the consortium. Leveraging these advanced tools, we can drive soil-based climate solutions grounded in leading-edge science. Ames’ affinity for the outdoors and agroecosystems fuels his passion for this work.
Dr. Stephen Ogle
Senior Research Scientist + Full Professor
Research Scientist
Dr. Ligia Souza
Data Science Lead
Ecosystem Modeling + Data Consortium
Dr. Corinne Walsh
Consortium Operations Lead
Ecosystem Modeling + Data Consortium
Dr. Yao Zhang
Research Scientist
NREL
Frequently Asked Questions
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This will be a technical training, designed for the beginner/intermediate to ecosystem modeling and R. We will do our best to make the material accessible, however some experience in R is required.
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Unfortunately we cannot provide remote participation for this training.
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For this uncertainty training, we are prioritizing commercial and nonprofit/research consortium members for our limited number of seats. We are happy to take names for the waitlist and will offer additional trainings in the near future.
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You will need to have your own laptop - any operating system is ok!
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The Uncertainty Training tuition provides you with in-person instruction in a small group setting. This includes staff time, training materials, coffee, tea and light refreshments. Lodging and travel are not included.
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This will be the first Uncertainty training, however we have had several successful model trainings in a similar format and we anticipate running the training again within the next calendar year. Please stay tuned for more information.